El Niño, Food Waste and the Methane Problem

Edited and reviewed by Brett Stadelmann.

By Matthew Moore. Matthew writes about food waste, composting, soil resilience and household environmental technology for GEME, a developer of microbial composting systems. A full disclosure appears at the end of this article.

Editor’s Note: Unsustainable Magazine independently reviewed the principal climate, waste-management and environmental claims in this contributed article against NOAA, U.S. EPA and peer-reviewed sources. Commercial products are discussed where they help illustrate differences between food-waste technologies.

A limp celery stalk, a banana peel or yesterday’s rice hardly looks like part of the El Niño story. Once those scraps disappear into the kitchen bin, most of us stop thinking about them.

But food does not disappear when it leaves the kitchen. It enters a waste-management system, and if that system ends in a landfill, the climate consequences can be surprisingly significant.

That connection needs to be made carefully. Food waste does not cause El Niño, and composting cannot weaken an El Niño event. ENSO is a natural ocean-atmosphere cycle centred on the tropical Pacific.

The connection is instead one of climate vulnerability, mitigation and resilience. A powerful El Niño can expose stresses in agriculture, water supplies, soils and food systems. At the same time, human-caused warming continues in the background, making the reduction of avoidable greenhouse-gas emissions increasingly important.

Food waste sits at the intersection of those issues. Sending organic material to landfill generates avoidable methane. Properly managed composting can keep some of that material out of landfill and return organic matter to soils, where it can improve water retention, infiltration and resilience to drought and heavy rainfall.

But even that seemingly straightforward solution has become harder to interpret as a new generation of household appliances is marketed under terms such as “electric composter,” “food recycler” and “smart composter.”

What matters environmentally is not simply what a machine is called. It is what biological or physical process actually occurs, how much energy and material the system requires, and where the output ultimately goes.

Key Takeaways

  • NOAA says the 2026–27 El Niño has a greater than 90% chance of becoming very strong, increasing attention on food, water and climate resilience.
  • Food makes up about 24% of material disposed of in U.S. municipal landfills but is responsible for an estimated 58% of fugitive methane emissions from those landfills.
  • Preventing edible food waste remains environmentally preferable to finding a better way to process it after disposal.
  • EPA defines composting as managed aerobic biological decomposition by microorganisms and says grinding and dehydrating appliances do not themselves produce compost.
  • Reducing the volume or weight of scraps does not necessarily create a climate benefit if the resulting material still goes to landfill.
  • Proper compost use can improve soil organic matter, water infiltration and retention, helping soils cope with drought and heavy rainfall.
  • Household microbial composting systems operate differently from dehydrators, but their environmental performance still depends on energy use, durability, capacity, output use and the waste pathway they replace.

El Niño 2026 is becoming a serious climate story

By August 2026, El Niño was established and strengthening across the tropical Pacific.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reported a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026–27. For October through December, NOAA also gave a 69% chance that the Relative Oceanic Niño Index, or RONI, would reach +2.5°C or higher — potentially exceeding the strength of previous El Niño events in its record dating back to 1950.

The forecast has inevitably revived headlines about a possible “super El Niño,” although that is not an official NOAA classification. More important than the nickname is the scale of the event now being forecast.

Figure 1. August 2026 El Niño forecast snapshot. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center and NOAA GFDL.
Figure 1. August 2026 El Niño forecast summary. The graphic summarizes NOAA Climate Prediction Center probabilities and NOAA experimental guidance. Source: NOAA.

ENSO is one of the most influential sources of year-to-year climate variability on Earth. Changes in tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures can alter rainfall, winds and atmospheric circulation far beyond the Pacific.

A strong El Niño can shift storm tracks and rainfall patterns. Some regions may experience greater risks of heavy rainfall and flooding, while Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia can face increased drought risk.

Those effects are not uniform, and El Niño should not be blamed for every flood, drought, heatwave or storm that occurs while the event is underway. ENSO changes probabilities; it does not dictate individual weather events.

When climate variability becomes a food-system problem

The connection to sustainability becomes clearer when those changes reach farms, reservoirs, soils and infrastructure.

Too much rain can saturate farmland, increase erosion and delay harvests. Too little can reduce reservoir levels, restrict irrigation and place crops under water stress. Abnormal heat can affect livestock, electricity demand, worker safety and food storage.

Those impacts do not stop at the farm gate. They can move through commodity markets, insurance systems, transportation networks and ultimately household food prices.

A 2023 Nature Communications study estimated that the economic consequences associated with major El Niño events can persist for years. Under the authors’ modelling framework, the 1997–98 event was associated with about $2.1 trillion in cumulative global economic losses, while the 2015–16 event was associated with roughly $3.9 trillion over the event year and following three years.

Those are modelled estimates rather than a direct tally of disaster losses, but they illustrate why ENSO belongs in discussions about food security, water management and economic resilience.

Climate change adds another layer. El Niño itself is natural; greenhouse-gas emissions did not create ENSO. But natural climate variability now operates against a warmer climatic background.

That leaves society with two parallel jobs: adapting food, water and land systems to climate stress while reducing avoidable emissions wherever practical.

Food waste belongs in both conversations.

Preventing food waste comes first

Before discussing composters, dehydrators or landfill diversion, there is an important hierarchy to establish.

The U.S. EPA Wasted Food Scale places prevention at the top. Avoiding unnecessary food waste is environmentally preferable to composting food after it has already been discarded.

That is because food carries environmental impacts before it ever reaches a rubbish bin. Producing it may require land, irrigation water, fertiliser, energy, refrigeration, packaging, processing and transport.

No waste-processing technology can recover all of those resources once edible food has been thrown away.

The first priority should therefore be to prevent avoidable waste. Composting, anaerobic digestion and other treatment systems become relevant when genuinely unavoidable scraps remain.

Food waste is also a methane problem

Once food is discarded, its destination matters greatly.

EPA estimates that food makes up about 24% of municipal solid waste disposed of in U.S. landfills. Yet landfilled food is responsible for approximately 58% of fugitive methane emissions from those landfills.

The imbalance is partly explained by the speed at which food decomposes. Once buried in oxygen-poor conditions, organic material undergoes anaerobic decomposition and generates methane.

Food can begin producing methane before landfill-gas collection systems are operating at full effectiveness. EPA estimates that approximately 61% of the methane generated by landfilled food waste escapes collection and is released to the atmosphere.

Figure 2. Food waste is disproportionately important for landfill methane. Source: U.S. EPA.
Figure 2. Food waste makes up about 24% of municipal solid waste disposed of in U.S. landfills but is responsible for an estimated 58% of fugitive landfill methane. Source: U.S. EPA, Quantifying Methane Emissions from Landfilled Food Waste.

The EPA’s national analysis of landfilled food waste therefore points to diversion as a practical methane-reduction strategy.

This does not mean that one discarded meal meaningfully changes the climate. The issue is scale: millions of tonnes of rapidly decomposing organic material entering landfill create a substantial and avoidable source of methane.

And this is where the relationship to a climate-stress event such as El Niño becomes clearer. El Niño can place pressure on the systems that produce food and manage water, while landfill methane adds further avoidable warming pressure. Dealing more intelligently with food waste cannot influence ENSO itself, but it can reduce one source of emissions occurring alongside that natural variability.

The “electric composter” category has a definition problem

The household food-waste appliance market complicates the picture because very different technologies can be marketed with similar language.

Some appliances primarily use heat, grinding and dehydration to remove water and reduce the weight and volume of food scraps.

Others maintain an aerobic biological environment in which microorganisms actively break down organic material.

Both approaches may solve genuine household problems. They are not, however, the same process.

The EPA’s home composting guidance defines composting as managed, aerobic biological decomposition of organic material by microorganisms.

EPA separately discusses residential grinding and dehydrating appliances. These can dramatically reduce the volume and weight of scraps, but EPA says they do not themselves produce compost. The resulting dried material still requires further composting, curing or another appropriate downstream treatment.

That distinction matters because making food waste physically smaller does not necessarily change its ultimate environmental pathway.

If dried food scraps are placed in general rubbish and eventually sent to landfill, the material may be lighter and easier to store, but landfill disposal has not necessarily been avoided.

Climate performance depends on the whole system

None of this means dehydration is inherently useless or environmentally harmful.

Removing moisture can reduce storage volume, odour and transport weight. In some households or waste systems, those benefits may be valuable.

Likewise, biological composting is not impact-free simply because microbes are involved.

A credible comparison has to consider the whole pathway: electricity use, appliance manufacturing, durability, transport, maintenance, process emissions, output quality and what conventional disposal method has actually been displaced.

Thermal dehydration requires energy to evaporate water. Powered composting systems also consume electricity. Large-scale composting may require collection vehicles and machinery. Poorly aerated organic material can produce methane or nitrous oxide.

A review and meta-analysis of 82 studies, mostly lifecycle assessments, found sufficient comparative evidence to conclude that aerobic composting and anaerobic digestion performed better than waste-to-energy and landfill-gas-to-energy for climate-change impacts in the studies examined.

But the researchers also found substantial variation in system boundaries and results. No single end-of-life method consistently performed best across every environmental category.

That nuance is important. Environmental performance cannot reliably be determined from a product category, a volume-reduction percentage or the word “composter” printed on an appliance.

What composting adds is a soil pathway

Keeping suitable organic material out of landfill is only half of the composting story.

The other half is what happens when properly processed organic matter returns to land.

EPA’s scientific review of the environmental value of applying compost found broad evidence that compost use can increase soil organic matter, improve water infiltration and retention, reduce soil compaction and erosion, and support resilience to drought and heavy rainfall.

Figure 3. Composting as climate mitigation and soil resilience. Source: U.S. EPA.
Figure 3. EPA’s synthesis links appropriate compost use with lower landfill emissions, greater carbon sequestration and improved soil and water resilience. Source: U.S. EPA, Environmental Value of Applying Compost.

EPA’s synthesis reports an approximately 78% reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions when food waste is composted and land applied rather than landfilled, along with more than three times greater carbon sequestration in the same pathway comparison.

Those figures require an important qualification. They describe a comparison between waste-management pathways across the research EPA reviewed. They are not a universal carbon-reduction factor that can be attached to any compost pile, municipal program or household appliance.

But the underlying soil connection is particularly relevant to climate resilience.

Soils with better organic matter, structure and water-holding capacity can be better equipped to absorb heavy rainfall and retain moisture through dry periods. That does not mean compost can prevent El Niño-related drought or flooding. It means healthier soils can form one part of a broader effort to make agricultural and urban landscapes less vulnerable when climate variability produces extremes.

Continuous aerobic microbial composting at different household scales

The distinction between dehydration and biological processing is also becoming visible within household food-waste technology.

One example is GEME, the company with which the author of this article is affiliated. Its Terra 2 and GEME Pro systems use what the company calls Continuous Aerobic Microbial Composting rather than relying primarily on drying and grinding.

Both systems are designed to maintain a living microbial environment through managed heat, moisture, airflow and mixing, but they are intended for different household loads.

According to GEME’s current specifications, Terra 2 is optimized for households of one to three people and has a stated daily processing capacity of up to 2 kg of normal household food scraps. GEME Pro is intended for households of four or more people and heavier waste loads, with a stated processing capacity of up to 5 kg per day.

That sizing distinction is relevant when considering an independent Digital Trends review of Terra 2 published in June 2026.

The reviewer tested Terra 2 over several weeks in a five-person household, larger than GEME’s current recommended household size for that model. The review found that the system produced genuine usable compost, handled a broad range of food scraps and could be continuously fed, but also reported that it sometimes struggled to keep up with the household’s waste volume and produced noticeable odour during parts of the decomposition process.

That household context matters when interpreting those observations. The test effectively placed the smaller model under a heavier load than GEME currently recommends. Digital Trends itself noted that the appliance could fill quickly for larger households and reported occasional overload errors.

GEME says sustained overloading — particularly with dense or high-moisture inputs — can temporarily restrict airflow through the active microbial material and disturb the aerobic conditions on which the process depends. For a five-person household, the company recommends the higher-capacity GEME Pro rather than Terra 2.

The Digital Trends test therefore provides useful evidence from both directions: it independently found that microbial decomposition could produce usable compost, while also showing why capacity, loading habits and operating conditions matter in a living biological system.

None of this exempts GEME or any other biological composter from lifecycle scrutiny. Electricity use, manufacturing, durability, maintenance, output use and the waste pathway displaced remain relevant. A biological process is not automatically the best environmental option for every household.

Different homes may need different food-waste solutions

Household circumstances can change the answer considerably.

A home with a successful backyard compost pile may have little reason to buy a powered appliance. Someone with convenient municipal food-organics collection may already have access to a larger-scale diversion system.

An apartment dweller without outdoor space faces a different set of choices. So does a household producing unusually large volumes of food scraps.

Consumers comparing systems can cut through much of the terminology by asking a few practical questions:

  • Is the process primarily biological decomposition, dehydration, grinding, or some combination?
  • Is the final material biologically stable compost, or does it require further treatment?
  • How much food waste is the system actually designed to accept each day?
  • How much electricity does it use?
  • Does it require filters, additives or replacement components?
  • What maintenance is required to keep it operating as designed?
  • What will happen to the output?
  • Does using the system genuinely prevent organic material from reaching landfill?
  • Could a lower-tech option such as food-waste prevention, municipal organics collection, backyard composting or vermicomposting achieve the same outcome?

The last question is important. Sustainability does not require every environmental problem to acquire an appliance.

What all of this has to do with El Niño

It is worth returning to where this story began.

Composting cannot weaken El Niño, prevent La Niña or alter the trade winds over the Pacific. A claim that a household food-waste appliance could directly influence ENSO would go far beyond the evidence.

The connection is instead about how societies respond when natural climate variability operates in an already warming world.

A very strong El Niño can rapidly expose weaknesses in agriculture, water supplies, soils and infrastructure. Mitigation asks us, at the same time, to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions that we can actually influence.

Food waste provides an unusually tangible example of both ideas.

Preventing edible food from being wasted avoids the environmental resources embedded in producing it. Keeping unavoidable organic scraps out of methane-intensive landfill pathways can reduce avoidable emissions. Returning appropriately produced compost to land can improve soil organic matter, infiltration and water retention, helping landscapes cope more effectively with both scarcity and excess rainfall.

None of those actions controls El Niño. Together, however, they illustrate the difference between trying to control climate variability and building systems that are less damaging and less vulnerable when variability occurs.

Clear pathways matter more than green labels

Climate discussions understandably focus on large systems: electricity generation, transportation, industry, buildings and agriculture.

They should. But smaller material flows still matter when repeated across millions of households.

A piece of wasted food required resources before it reached the kitchen. Once discarded, it still has a destination. Whether it is prevented, donated, composted, digested, dehydrated, incinerated or landfilled changes what happens next.

That is why the environmental question cannot stop at whether an appliance makes food scraps disappear from view.

The better questions are what process occurred, what resources were required, whether landfill disposal was actually avoided, whether a useful material was recovered, and where that material ultimately went.

Dehydrators, food recyclers and microbial composters can all play useful roles. They solve different problems, operate in different ways and should not be treated as environmentally interchangeable.

El Niño reminds us how quickly food, soil and water systems can come under pressure. We cannot control the Pacific Ocean, but we can make better decisions about the resources already passing through our kitchens — including what we waste and what happens to it afterward.


Author disclosure: Matthew Moore writes about food waste, composting, soil resilience and household environmental technology for GEME, a developer of microbial composting systems. GEME Terra 2 and GEME Pro are discussed in this article as examples of continuous aerobic microbial composting technology at different household scales. Unsustainable Magazine independently reviewed and edited the article and its principal environmental claims. The EPA pathway-level findings discussed above should not be interpreted as a product-specific lifecycle assessment or environmental endorsement of GEME Terra 2, GEME Pro or any other individual product.