Chocolate in a warming climate: How changing average temperatures are impacting the cocoa industry
Climate change, the ongoing increase in global temperatures, affects all countries worldwide and is driven by human activities, notably the burning of fossil fuels, an activity that began during the Industrial Revolution. On top of that, industrial and agricultural practices, as well as deforestation, release greenhouse gases as well. They absorb the heat radiated by the Earth after it is warmed by sunlight, contributing to the creation of a warmer atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is one of the main culprits and has increased in concentration by over 50% compared to pre-industrial levels. The current levels haven’t been recorded for at least 2 million years.
The impact of global warming is enormous, with many scientists believing that the full scope of these negative changes isn’t fully understood as humanity is navigating unprecedented times. Deserts are expanding, glaciers are melting, the permafrost is thawing, storms and wildfires are becoming more intense. Changes in ecosystems, including coral reefs, have forced species to relocate, with many becoming extinct as a result. Ocean heating, rising sea levels, and gradual ocean acidification are expected to continue in the future, as they are irreversible, and even considerable minimization of future warming won’t be enough to stave off their impact.
It’s not just nature and the animals that are suffering but human beings as well. Climate change increases food insecurity and water scarcity. Many are forced to migrate in order to avoid starvation. Switching to eco-friendly energy sources, minimizing waste, conserving water, promoting circular economies, and making sustainability a priority are the only ways to ensure a safe and clean future for everyone. Some agricultural sectors are already severely impacted, with cocoa being the most noteworthy.
The basics
Most cocoa is grown in West Africa, particularly in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, which were responsible for the production of 5 million tons between 2022 and 2023. Smaller countries are produced in other parts of the world as well, such as Ecuador and Indonesia, but these two countries are the dominant producers. Most businesses dealing with desserts have done their research before choosing a cocoa manufacturer in order to guarantee that they’re working with the best in the field. It’s not just the cocoa powder itself but the liquor, butter, and butter fats as well, all of which are staple ingredients for confectionery companies.
Climate change threatens to disrupt this carefully crafted system, as climbing temperatures, unpredictable and inconsistent rainfall patterns, and a plethora of unusual weather events impact the yields and drive up the price points, making it difficult for consumers to keep buying and for producers to stay in business. Decreasing supplies are making chocolate a luxury for many people from all over the world, while the need for new cultivation areas will likely move cocoa areas uphill, a change that will lead to deforestation and considerable competition with others who want to use the same land.
Climate change has also exacerbated the incidence of pests and diseases for cocoa crops, reducing the yields even further. On top of the price hikes, lower production levels have also contributed to the rise of shrinkflation, a phenomenon where manufacturers and retailers reduce the size or quantity of a certain product while the price remains the same.
Lack of humidity
It’s not just rising temperatures that are putting a dent in the quantity of chocolate being produced at the moment. Some areas, such as Malaysia, are already warmer than West Africa, and the cocoa plants don’t appear to suffer any ill effects as a result. The real danger is evapotranspiration, the process during which water moves from the Earth’s surface into the atmosphere. It is a fundamental part of the water cycle, with a considerable impact on climate and water management.
Growing temperatures are unlikely to be accompanied by increased rainfall as well, meaning that the hotter weather will remove even more water out of the soil and plants. Even if rainfall levels remain stable, which is unlikely according to all the climate data scientists have so far, it still wouldn’t be enough to offset moisture loss. As a result, cocoa wholesale will likely continue to become more expensive in the future. Growers will keep on dealing with the challenges in the upcoming decades as well, with new solutions needed in order to prevent the industry from ceasing to exist altogether or the products becoming far too expensive for the majority of people to handle.
Mexico’s cocoa
The history of chocolate dates back over 5,000 years ago, when the first cacao trees were domesticated in what is today’s southeast Ecuador. The Mayo-Chinchipe culture was the first to domesticate the plant, and from then, it moved on to Mesoamerica, where cultivation and consumption became extensive. The ancient peoples inhabiting this cultural and geographic space created varieties that grew high-quality fruits, which were used in ceremonies, religious rituals, festivals, funerary proceedings, and weddings. Mexico is currently known for a premium-quality variety of cocoa known as Criollo.
Staple Mexican dishes such as champurrado and mole use it as an ingredient. Its flavor is different and more complex, earning it the name “price of cacaos” among connoisseurs. Criollo is, however, quite rare as it is more vulnerable to disease and typically has a lower yield. Its scarcity is, in fact, one of the reasons why it is so highly prized. Climate change has affected farmers from this region quite a lot as well, with the lack of sufficient rain being the most pressing concern. When there’s not enough moisture, the flower’s solidification is impacted, and the pods fail to thrive.
The plots that used to deliver up to 1,000 kg on average only delivered half that amount during the 2024 harvest season. Shifting river levels and a lack of enthusiasm for the trade among the younger generations place additional strain on the industry.
To sum up, the cocoa and chocolate industries are undoubtedly navigating difficult times. As countless people from all across the globe are set to be impacted by these changes, it is imperative to remember that the fight against climate change remains as relevant as ever and why it should concern everyone.